Author: The Mo Ibrahim Foundation (MIF) is an African foundation, established in 2006 with one focus: the critical importance of governance and leadership in Africa. It was founded by Sudanese billionaire businessman and philanthropist Mo Ibrahim. The Foundation is a non-grant making and non-fundraising organization. It focuses on defining, assessing and enhancing governance and leadership in Africa through four main initiatives:
Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG), Ibrahim Prize for Achievement in African Leadership, Ibrahim Governance Weekend, Ibrahim Leadership Fellowships.
Type of publication/ Type de publication: Report
Date of publication/Date de publication: October 2024
Site of the organisation/ Site de l’organisation: Mo Ibrahim Foundation
The current African context is marked by significant challenges in governance, security, and economic development. According to the 2024 Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG), progress in governance across the continent has stalled, with a notable deterioration in security and democratic conditions. Over 77% of Africans now live in countries where levels of security and democratic participation have declined since 2014. This highlights the growing difficulties many African states face in sustaining stable and inclusive institutions in an increasingly complex environment. The report, which covers the period from 2014 to 2023, is based on 49 independent data sources and analyzes 322 variables grouped into 96 indicators, organized into four main categories: security and rule of law, participation, rights, and inclusion, foundations for economic opportunities, and human development. This multidimensional methodology provides a comprehensive overview of governance in Africa while offering an in-depth analysis of local realities. The IIAG enables stakeholders to better understand both the broad trends and specific dynamics shaping governance across the continent. Despite the stagnation in progress after 2022, some countries show positive exceptions. Nations such as Morocco, Côte d’Ivoire, and the Seychelles have made significant strides, demonstrating that progress is possible even amid challenging circumstances. These cases highlight the disparities in governance across the continent and emphasize the need for a nuanced understanding of the different trajectories African countries are following, with some advancing while others struggle with persistent challenges. In addition to its quantitative analysis, the IIAG incorporates citizens’ perceptions of governance, adding a local and qualitative dimension to its findings. This emphasizes the importance of citizen engagement in shaping public policies, making the report an indispensable tool for policymakers aiming to evaluate the effectiveness of governance reforms and chart a path forward for improving governance across Africa. Pourquoi avons-nous choisi ce document ? Le contexte africain actuel est marqué par des défis majeurs en matière de gouvernance, de sécurité et de développement économique. Le 2024 Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG) révèle que les progrès en matière de gouvernance ont stagné sur l’ensemble du continent, avec une détérioration particulièrement notable des conditions de sécurité et de démocratie. Plus de 77 % des Africains vivent désormais dans des pays où ces deux aspects se sont dégradés depuis 2014. Ce constat met en lumière les difficultés auxquelles de nombreux États africains font face pour maintenir des institutions stables et inclusives dans un environnement de plus en plus complexe. Le rapport couvre la période de 2014 à 2023 et s’appuie sur 49 sources indépendantes pour analyser 322 variables regroupées en 96 indicateurs, organisés en quatre grandes catégories : sécurité et État de droit, participation, droits et inclusion, fondements des opportunités économiques, et développement humain. Cette approche multidimensionnelle permet de dresser un portrait global et détaillé de la gouvernance sur le continent, tout en prenant en compte les disparités et spécificités locales. L’IIAG offre ainsi une vision approfondie des réalités nationales et régionales, facilitant la comparaison des performances des pays africains. Malgré la stagnation des progrès observée après 2022, certains pays affichent des résultats encourageants. Le Maroc, la Côte d’Ivoire et les Seychelles se distinguent par une amélioration significative en matière de gouvernance. Ces exemples illustrent que, malgré des environnements difficiles, il est possible de renforcer les institutions et de promouvoir un développement plus équitable. Cependant, ces disparités soulignent également les différentes trajectoires empruntées par les États africains, certains progressant rapidement tandis que d’autres continuent de faire face à des crises persistantes. Enfin, l’IIAG ne se limite pas à une simple analyse quantitative ; il intègre également les perceptions des citoyens sur la gouvernance. Cette dimension qualitative enrichit l’analyse en apportant une perspective locale sur l’efficacité des politiques publiques et la confiance des populations envers leurs gouvernements. Cela renforce la nécessité d’impliquer les citoyens dans l’élaboration des réformes, en faisant de ce rapport un outil essentiel pour les décideurs qui cherchent à évaluer et améliorer les politiques de gouvernance à travers l’Afrique.
The report highlights the need to improve security and the rule of law. Indeed, more than 77% of the population lives in countries where these dimensions have deteriorated between 2014 and 2023. The “Security and Rule of Law” category recorded a significant decline, with countries like Burkina Faso being the most affected by the deterioration of safety and security, showing major decreases in two key indicators: the absence of armed conflict (-75.9) and the absence of violence against civilians (-73.2). This situation underscores the urgency for governments to invest in effective security forces and strengthen judicial institutions to promote justice and transparency. Holistic approaches must be adopted to address the root causes of conflict, such as social injustice and economic exclusion. The IIAG also emphasizes the importance of broader citizen participation. The “Participation, Rights, and Inclusion” category is often the weakest, with more than 60% of the population living in countries where this dimension has regressed. For instance, Gabon recorded a 3-point improvement in this category, while Cameroon experienced a decline of 2.1 points. Governments must establish mechanisms to involve citizens more actively in the decision-making process, ensuring the inclusion of marginalized groups such as youth and women. This can help reduce social frustrations and prevent the emergence of tensions that undermine national cohesion. The report stresses the need to diversify and strengthen economic opportunities. Countries that succeed in diversifying their economies are better prepared to face crises. The report indicates that 88% of the continent’s population has seen an improvement in this category since 2014, with an average score of 48.3 out of 100 for “Foundations for Economic Opportunities.” For example, Angola has shown a notable improvement with its score rising by 9.7 points in this subcategory. These investments can create jobs and support innovation, thereby enhancing economic resilience even in challenging contexts. Finally, human development is essential for effective governance. Countries that invest in education, healthcare, and social protection generally achieve better overall governance outcomes. According to the report, despite some progress in human development, these advances are being compromised by the ongoing deterioration of the security and democratic landscape. It is crucial for countries to prioritize policies that improve access to quality basic services for all vulnerable populations. Quelles leçons pour les pays de la zone de WATHI ? Le rapport souligne la nécessité d’améliorer la sécurité et l’État de droit. En effet, plus de 77 % de la population vit dans des pays où ces dimensions se sont détériorées entre 2014 et 2023. La catégorie “Sécurité et État de Droit” a enregistré une baisse significative, avec certains comme le Burkina Faso qui est le pays le plus touché par la détérioration de la sécurité et de la sûreté, avec des baisses majeures dans deux indicateurs clés : l’absence de conflit armé (-75,9) et l’absence de violence contre les civils (-73,2). Cette situation met en évidence l’urgence pour les gouvernements d’investir dans des forces de sécurité efficaces et de renforcer les institutions judiciaires afin de promouvoir la justice et la transparence. Des approches holistiques doivent être adoptées pour traiter les causes profondes des conflits, telles que l’injustice sociale et l’exclusion économique. L’IIAG met également en avant l’importance d’une participation citoyenne plus large. La catégorie “Participation, Droits et Inclusion” est souvent la plus faible, avec plus de 60 % de la population vivant dans des pays où cette dimension a régressé. Par exemple, le Gabon a enregistré une progression de 3 points dans cette catégorie, tandis que le Cameroun a connu une baisse de 2,1 points. Les gouvernements doivent mettre en place des mécanismes pour impliquer davantage les citoyens dans le processus décisionnel, en veillant à inclure les groupes marginalisés tels que les jeunes et les femmes. Cela peut contribuer à réduire les frustrations sociales et à prévenir l’émergence de tensions qui nuisent à la cohésion nationale. Le rapport insiste sur la nécessité de diversifier et renforcer les opportunités économiques. Les pays qui réussissent à diversifier leurs économies sont mieux préparés à faire face aux crises. Le rapport indique que 88 % de la population continentale a vu une amélioration dans cette catégorie depuis 2014, avec un score moyen de 48,3 sur 100 pour “Fondements des Opportunités Économiques”. Par exemple, l’Angola a enregistré une amélioration notable avec un score en hausse de 9,7 points dans cette sous-catégorie. Ces investissements peuvent créer des emplois et soutenir l’innovation, tout en renforçant la résilience économique même dans des contextes difficiles. Enfin, le développement humain est essentiel pour une gouvernance efficace. Les pays qui investissent dans l’éducation, la santé et la protection sociale obtiennent généralement de meilleurs résultats en matière de gouvernance. Selon le rapport, malgré certaines avancées en matière de développement humain, celles-ci sont compromises par la détérioration continue du paysage sécuritaire et démocratique. Il est crucial que les pays priorisent des politiques qui améliorent l’accès à des services sociaux de base de qualité pour toutes les populations vulnérables.
Extracts from pages/ Les extraits proviennent des pages : (14, 15, 16-17, 18, 22, 23-24, 26, 27, 36-37, 44, 46, 47, 48, 49-50, 52 53, 70, 71, 72)
Overall Governance
At the continental average level, Overall Governance progress between 2014 and 2023 has come to a standstill since 2022
The 2024 IIAG paints a picture of stagnation in Africa’s Overall Governance performance between 2014 and 2023. With a score of 49.3 in 2023, progress has been limited to +1.0 with almost no change from 2018 and coming to a complete stop in 2022. Over the decade, 33 countries, hosting just over half (52.1%) of the continent’s population, have made progress in Overall Governance. For 13 of them Congo Republic, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Gabon, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Morocco, Somalia, Togo, Zambia – hosting over 1/5th (20.5%) of the continent’s population, progress is even accelerating over the second half of the period. But for the remaining 21 countries, hosting 47.9% of the population, the Overall Governance level is worse in 2023 than in 2014. For 11 of those – Botswana, Burkina Faso, Eswatini, Guinea, Mauritius, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, Sudan, Tunisia, Uganda – home to almost 1/3 (29.3%) of the population, deterioration is even worsening over the second part of the decade. This concerning overall trend is driven by the ongoing deterioration of the Security & Rule of Law dimension, which has been the most deteriorated category since 2014 (-1.6 points), as well as, to a lesser extent, by the irregular trajectory of Participation, Rights & Inclusion, ending with a loss of -0.2 points between 2014 and 2023. Within these categories, deterioration is worst in both Security & Safety and in Participation, with a loss of -5.0 and -4.5 points respectively, while Rights (-2.8) and Accountability & Transparency (-1.4) also decline, but to a lesser extent. Meanwhile, Human Development (+2.9) and Foundations for Economic Opportunity (+2.8) improved over the decade under review, but progress has ultimately slowed from 2019. This slowing improvement trend applies to all underlying sub-categories of these two categories since 2019, with the exception of Health, which still managed to accelerate progress, and Social Protection & Welfare, which remained unchanged.
13 countries on a course of accelerating progress, 11 countries on a course of worsening deterioration
Increasing Improvement 13: Congo Republic, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Gabon, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Morocco, Somalia, Togo, Zambia
Increasing Deterioration 11: Botswana, Burkina Faso, Eswatini, Guinea, Mauritius, Mozambique, Nigeria, Sénégal, Sudan, Tunisia, Uganda
Warning Signs 11: Algeria, Cabo Verde, Central African Republic,
Chad, Ethiopia, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Rwanda, São Tomé and Príncipe, Zimbabwe
Slowing Improvement 9: Angola, Benin, Djibouti, Kenya, Liberia,
Mauritania, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Tanzania
Slowing Deterioration 7: Cameroon, Comoros, DR Congo, Mali, Namibia, Niger, South Africa
Bouncing Back 3: Burundi, Lesotho, South Sudan
A reshuffle at the top of the Overall Governance ranking table
Seychelles has overtaken Mauritius from 2020, moving into the 1st rank. Seychelles is both the best performing and most improved country of the whole continent, gaining an impressive +10.0 points following progress over the decade, starting from 7th rank in 2014. Meanwhile, Mauritius is on an opposing trajectory of worsening deterioration over the decade, losing -4.0 points. Additionally, within the top ten ranking countries, trends are highly diverging, from increasing improvement in Morocco to increasing deterioration in Mauritius, Botswana and Tunisia.
Over the decade, 33 countries, hosting just over half (52.1%) of the continent’s population, have made progress in Overall Governance. For 13 of them Congo Republic, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Gabon, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Morocco, Somalia, Togo, Zambia – hosting over 1/5th (20.5%) of the continent’s population, progress is even accelerating over the second half of the period
Largest deteriorations spread across the continental scale
Along with Mauritius, three top-ten ranking countries also feature among the top-ten largest deteriorations at continental level, falling by just under -5.0 points: Tunisia (-4.7/9th), Mauritius (-4.0/2nd), Botswana (-3.6/5th) and Namibia (-3.3/6th).
Largest improvements also spread across the continental scale
Six countries, ranking throughout the continental scale from 1st to 53rd, record the most notable improvements of over +5.0 points: Seychelles (+10.0/1st), Gambia (+7.2/20th), Somalia (+6.8/53rd), Sierra Leone (+6.4/23rd), Angola (+5.8/36th) and Morocco (+5.3/8th).
11 countries registering warning signs
11 countries show Warning Signs: although they are still scoring better in 2023 than in 2014, they have deteriorated over the last five years. These are Cabo Verde (+0.4/3rd), Ghana (+1.2/7th), São Tomé and Príncipe (+0.7/12th), Rwanda (+0.8/14th), Algeria (+0.8/18th), Gambia (+7.2/20th), Ethiopia (+2.5/29th), Zimbabwe (+1.6/31st), Guinea-Bissau (+1.0/ 44th), Chad (+1.8/47th) and Central African Republic (+3.0/49th).
Highly diverging trajectories among governance dimensions
The continent continues to register progress in the economic- and human development-related sub-categories, but further progress is stunted by the deterioration of key governance-related sub-categories such as Security & Safety, Participation, Rights and Rule of Law & Justice.
Countries with impressive improvements across sub-categories
Seychelles and Sierra Leone are the only two countries to have improved in every sub-category. While Angola and Somalia have also improved in 15 and 14 out of 16 sub-categories.
Progress over the decade for around 90% of Africa’s population in Infrastructure, Women’s Equality and Health. In these areas, a majority of countries even accelerate progress from 2019
Infrastructure (+7.1 points at continental level)
- For almost the entire continent’s population (95.7%), living in 52 countries, Infrastructure has improved over the decade – with over 1/3 (36.1%) living in 24 countries where it has progressed at an accelerating pace since 2019.
- The positive trend here is mainly driven by substantial progress in Mobile Communications (+19.8), Internet & Computers (+16.2) and Access to Energy (+7.2).
- Meanwhile, Shipping & Postal Network (-4.0) has declined.
Women’s Equality (+6.9 points at continental level)
- For 94.8% of Africa’s population, living in 47 countries, Women’s Equality has improved since 2014 – with 60% living in 23 countries where it has even increasingly improved since 2019.
- The positive trend here is mainly driven by substantial progress in Laws on Violence against Women (+16.7), Public Perception of Female Leadership (+14.5) and Political Power and Representation of Women (+6.5).
Laws on Violence against Women improve all
across the continent. This indicator is the second most improved of the entire IIAG (+16.7), with half of the 54 countries reaching a maximum score of 100.0 in 2023.
11 countries show Warning Signs: although they are still scoring better in 2023 than in 2014, they have deteriorated over the last five years. These are Cabo Verde (+0.4/3rd), Ghana (+1.2/7th), São Tomé and Príncipe (+0.7/12th), Rwanda (+0.8/14th), Algeria (+0.8/18th), Gambia (+7.2/20th), Ethiopia (+2.5/29th), Zimbabwe (+1.6/31st), Guinea-Bissau (+1.0/ 44th), Chad (+1.8/47th) and Central African Republic (+3.0/49th)
Health (+3.5 points at continental level)
- For almost 90% (89.1%) of Africa’s population, living in 47 countries, Health has improved over the decade – with over 1/3 (36.2%) living in 28 countries where it has even increasingly improved since 2019.
- The positive trend here is mainly driven by substantial progress in Child & Maternal Health (+7.9), Control of Communicable Diseases (+6.6) and Access to Water & Sanitation (+5.3).
- However, despite this broad range of progress, Public Perception of Health Provision has registered a sharp deterioration (-6.9).
Mpox is an infectious viral disease declared by the WHO as an international public health emergency in August 2024. According to the latest available Epidemic Intelligence Report from 18 October 2024, there have been over 42,442 suspected and 8,548 confirmed cases of Mpox across 1/3rd of African countries (18 out of 54 countries). The 2024 IIAG’s Health Emergency Management sub-indicator measures a country’s surveillance and response to health emergencies. At the continental level, the sub-indicator has registered progress (+4.2) over 2014-2023.However, the relatively low African average score (48.4), signals that there is still a long way to go, especially in the wake of Mpox cases rising rapidly.
Education (+2.4 points at continental level)
- For almost 2/3rd of Africa’s population, living in 40 countries, Education has improved since 2014 – with 23% of Africa’s population living in a total of 17 countries where the pace of improvement has even accelerated since 2019.
- The positive trend here is mainly driven by progress in Education Completion (+6.1).
Bridging the financing gap in Health and Education: a key challenge for Africa’s development
Recent improvements in health and education outcomes reflect increased investment in these sectors across Africa. Countries like Namibia, Botswana, South Africa, Cabo Verde, and Lesotho stand out, each allocating over 10% of their GDP to health and education, as shown in the graph. This level of commitment is essential for progress, yet significant challenges persist, particularly in bridging the financing gap. According to UNESCO estimates , in 2021, total education spending in Africa rose by 2%, primarily driven by government contributions, which account for 69% of the total. However, governments spent an average of 3.7% of GDP on education, still below the recommended 4%.
Aid to education in sub-Saharan Africa dropped by 23%, returning to pre-COVID levels, further straining resources. Aid now makes up just 5% of education spending, while households contribute 27%, with families paying 1.5 to 5 times more for private education than for public schooling. Achieving education goals will require an additional $77 billion annually, but international aid to the sector has stagnated. On health, catastrophic out-of-pocket expenditures remain a major burden in countries like Uganda, Burundi, Kenya, and Tanzania, where over 20% of health expenses are paid by citizens directly . Reducing this figure to below 15% is critical for achieving Universal Health Coverage and shielding households from financial hardship.
A dangerous trade-off: human and economic development vs participation, rights, rule of law and justice, and security
This year marks 14 years since the IIAG was set up by the Mo Ibrahim Foundation. A review of the index reports since 2007 indicates that the IIAG remains a reliable indicator about the quality of governance of African countries in multiple categories and sub-categories. Every year when the IIAG is published, the general focus tends to be on the ranking of countries. From a public relations’ perspective, it may be understandable why some governments would welcome being top ranked while others would desire to distance themselves from data indicating declines in the quality of their public governance particularly if it is a year of planned election in their country.
The 2024 IIAG’s Health Emergency Management sub-indicator measures a country’s surveillance and response to health emergencies. At the continental level, the sub-indicator has registered progress (+4.2) over 2014-2023.However, the relatively low African average score (48.4), signals that there is still a long way to go, especially in the wake of Mpox cases rising rapidly
Nevertheless, it remains disappointing that state actors would primarily favour misusing the IIAG as a ranking mechanism when it suits their public image at the expense of ignoring data presented to them that signal areas of concern requiring their continuing and urgent attention. Overall, the IIAG captures more than the classification of African countries as top or low scorers. Instead, the IIAG indicates the performance of respective countries in effectively deliver social, political, economic, environmental and public goods and services for their citizens. On account of the IIAG’s rigorous and transparent methodology in addition to the regular updating of its framework, the data from the IIAG provide valuable information that can be used for multiple purposes: for comparing governance performances over time; for contrasting public service deliveries in relation with other countries; for identifying areas of improvement or declines in governance systems; for addressing data gaps; and for revealing trends that require urgent attention for the sake of enhancing the quality of public governance for citizens of African countries.
In the latest report, a key finding is that the overall African governance is stagnating – meaning that progress is neither improving nor declining since 2022. This is problematic because in the years prior to 2018, the data reflected country- level endeavours to improve in multiple dimensions or categories of governance. The latest IIAG exposes an alarming trend whereby African countries prioritise ‘progress mainly in the economic and human development related sub-categories’ at the expense of neglecting improvements in ‘governance related sub-categories including participation, rights, rule of law and justice and security.’ Going forward, any state actor seeking to strengthen their performance as reliable deliverers of social, political, economic, environmental and public goods and services would need to succeed in multiple dimensions of governance.
Declines in areas of participation, rights, rule of law and justice and security are difficult to offset in the long run unless immediate actions are taken to remedy lapses in these categories. Matters related to rights, respect of rule of law, justice and inclusion are essential for the overall determination of a state’s ability to achieve goals in the interest of their citizens rather than for political aspirations. The data suggesting declines in these matters are not sudden captures of the reality of the deteriorations on the ground. Instead, the data reflect gradual failures over several years which indicate governments’ continuing neglect for putting measures in place to address such gaps. The ordeal of a continental stagnation in overall governance needs to be surpassed.
Mixed progress in Regional Integration
After a small Covid-19-induced dent in Regional Integration in 2021, the continental average is steadily improving again (+4.4 since 2014). While only three countries are seeing double-digit deteriorations for this indicator (Uganda, Mali and Kenya), 40 countries register positive changes, led by Ethiopia (+33.8), Benin (+24.7) and Ghana (+20.2). Except for the EAC, whose small overall deterioration is driven by massive declines in Uganda and Kenya (-17.8 and -14.1, respectively), all African RECs have seen improvements over the last decade, spearheaded by ECOWAS (+11.0, excluding currently suspended or withdrawn countries). In 2023, four RECs perform above the African average of 43.4 (ECOWAS, SADC, EAC and COMESA), while four RECs register scores below (CEN-SAD, IGAD, ECCAS and UMA).
Concerning deterioration, especially since 2014, for around 80% of Africa’s
population in Security & Safety, Participation and Rights
Three of the five most deteriorated indicators between 2014 and 2023 belong to the Participation, Rights & Inclusion and Security & Rule of Law categories: Public Perception of Security & Safety (-10.9), Absence of Undue Influence (-9.1) and Freedom of Association & Assembly (-8.4).
Security & Safety (-5.0 points at continental level)
- 9% of Africa’s population live in a total of 43 countries where Security & Safety declined between 2014 and 2023 – with over half (53.9%) living in 26 countries experiencing increasing deterioration over the last five years.
- This negative trend is mostly driven by a strong deterioration in Public Perception of Security & Safety (-10.9) and Absence of Violence against Civilians (-7.7).
- Burkina Faso is the most deteriorated country in Security & Safety, driven by major declines in Absence of Armed Conflict (-75.9) and Absence of Violence against of Civilians (-73.2)
West African alliances deteriorating at a faster rate than ECOWAS
Security & Safety in the four withdrawn or suspended ex-ECOWAS members (Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali and Niger) has deteriorated almost five times more than in current ECOWAS countries. Similar observations can be made for other regional (West African) security alliances like the Multinational Joint Task Force, the Sahel G5 and, most recently, the ‘Coup Belt’ stretching from Guinea to Sudan. For over half (53.9%) of Africa’s population, living in 26 countries, Security & Safety has deteriorated since 2014, and even at an increasing pace since 2019.
Participation (-4.5 points at continental level)
- 3% of Africa’s population live in 38 countries where Participation has deteriorated since 2014 – with 30.3% living in 20 countries experiencing an accelerated pace of deterioration over the last five years.
- This negative trend is mostly driven by a strong deterioration in Freedom of Association & Assembly (-8.4) and Civil Society Space (-6.3).
- The only positive signal is the minimal progress registered in Deliberative Participatory Governance (+0.1)
Gambia registers impressive progress in key democratic measures
Gambia has seen impressive progress in 11 out of 16 sub-categories, with Participation (+34.2) driving growth, more than twice that of the second most improved sub-category, Rights (+15.8). In seven sub- categories, Gambia features among the ten most improved countries. In three sub-categories the country is even the most improved: Participation, Rights and Inclusion & Equality. Gambia ranks 1st for Public Perception in Freedom of Speech and Labour Relations while ranking among the top-ten best performing countries in 17 other indicators.
Participation is the second most deteriorated (-4.5) sub-category of the entire IIAG
All underlying indicators have declined apart from Deliberative & Participatory Governance (+0.1), which is only marginally improving. Only two countries have registered scores above 80.0: Seychelles (82.6) and Cabo Verde (80.9). For six of the still top-ten ranked countries, participatory governance worsened between 2014 and 2023. A major driver of this decline is attributed to the Freedom of Association & Assembly indicator which is not only the most declined indicator within the Participation sub-category but the fifth most of the entire IIAG. In total, 64.4% of Africa’s population are living in 29 countries where freedoms to assemble and associate have been substantially reduced between 2014 and 2023.
Security & Safety in the four withdrawn or suspended ex-ECOWAS members (Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali and Niger) has deteriorated almost five times more than in current ECOWAS countries. Similar observations can be made for other regional (West African) security alliances like the Multinational Joint Task Force, the Sahel G5 and, most recently, the ‘Coup Belt’ stretching from Guinea to Sudan
Rights (-2.8 points at continental level)
- 3% of Africa’s population live in 38 countries where Rights have deteriorated since 2014 – with almost 50% living in 16 countries worsening at a faster pace since 2019.
- This concerning trend is mostly driven by Public Perception of Freedom of Speech (-8.0) and Digital Freedom (-6.0).
- Substantial progress is registered in Protection against Discrimination (+7.7), but this remains at a very low level
Protection against Discrimination: strong progress, but still a long way to go
This is the only indicator to improve within the Rights sub-category between 2014 and 2023. This is mainly due to better protection against ethnic discrimination across the continent. Kenya and Liberia are the most improved countries with identical scores of 44.4, and both feature in the top-ten. However, the indicator also remains the lowest scoring (19.6) indicator out of the entire IIAG.
Digital Freedoms more restricted across the continent
Digital Freedoms have become restricted in Africa largely driven by the weakening of Freedom of Expression in Digital Spaces. The indicator is the second most declined within the Rights sub-category, worsening in 40 countries hosting just over 65% of the continent’s population. Only 14 countries have improved between 2014 and 2023 and only four of them by double-digits: Gambia (+44.6), Zambia (+19.7), Malawi (+13.3) and Seychelles (+12.0). Senegal has registered the largest decline (-27.3) of any other country.
About 60% of Africa’s population experience declines in Accountability
& Transparency, Rule of Law & Justice, and Social
Protection & Welfare
Accountability & Transparency (-1.4 points at the continental level)
- 7% of Africa’s population live in 31 countries where Accountability & Transparency has declined since 2014 – with 42.1% living in 17 countries deteriorating faster since 2019.
- This concerning trend is mainly driven by substantial decline in Absence of Undue Influence (-9.1) and Institutional Checks & Balances (-6.7).
- However, significant progress has been made in Disclosure of Public Records (+5.9) and Accessibility of Public Records (+5.1).
Rule of Law & Justice (-0.7 points at the continental level)
- 8% of the continent’s population live in 33 countries that have experienced deterioration since 2014 in Rule of Law & Justice – with almost 40% living in 17 countries experiencing an accelerated pace of decline since 2019.
- This decline is mostly driven by deterioration in Public Perception of the Rule of Law (-5.0) and Executive Compliance with the Rule of Law (-3.1).
- The only indicator to register improvement in the sub-category is Law Enforcement (+5.3)
Social Protection & Welfare (+0.4 points at the continental level)
- Despite marginal progress in the decade, 62.8% of Africa’s population live in 27 countries where Social Protection & Welfare has deteriorated since 2014 – with 41.9% of the population living in 16 countries deteriorating at a worsening pace since 2019.
- This trend is mainly driven by a strong decline in Public Perception of Social Protection & Lived Poverty (-9.4), as well as, though to a lesser extent, Food Security (-1.9).
- Meanwhile, noteworthy progress is registered in Decent Housing (+3.4), Socioeconomic Inequality Mitigation (+3.3) and Social Safety Nets (+2.7).
Inclusion & Equality (-0.4 points at the continental level)
- 3% of Africa’s population live in a country (29 in total) where Inclusion & Equality has declined since 2014 – with over 1/3 (34.3%) living in 20 countries experiencing increasing deterioration since 2019.
- This trend is mostly driven by declines in Equal Political Representation (-1.4) and Equal Civil Liberties (-1.3).
Anti-Corruption: Warning Signs
While Africa has registered minimal progress (+0.6) throughout the decade, almost half (46.9%) of the continent’s population live in 28 countries where Anti-Corruption has deteriorated since 2014. For 14.8% of Africa’s population living in 11 countries Anti-Corruption has deteriorated at a worsening pace since 2019. This recent decline is mostly driven by the deterioration of Public Perception of Anti- Corruption (-8.4) and Public Procurement Procedures (-0.4). The positive trend is still seen at the continental level, in Absence of Corruption in the Private Sector (+4.2) and Absence of Corruption in the Public Sector (+2.2). In 27 countries hosting 62.8% of Africa’s population, social protection and welfare for the people has declined over the past decade In Anti-Corruption, Angola improved by +17.9 while other higher scoring countries registered large declines: Botswana (-15.8), South Africa (-11.2) and Mauritius (-5.0) Socioeconomic Inequality Mitigation has improved for about 70% of Africa’s population.
Anti-Corruption
Official Statistics: moving towards data ownership in the future? Challenges and opportunities
Official statistics are produced by national statistical institutes or agencies or offices (NSOs). Despite institutional differences that are rooted in history and legal inheritance of countries, they are produced by public sector institutions, according to state needs, priorities, and choices. Despite being state products, independence of official statistics is critical. Nevertheless, it is a continuous struggle for NSOs, not only in Africa. Official statistics must comply to international standards, including quality requirements, reduction of burden on respondents, protection of information on individuals, avoiding releasing data allowing recognizing a person, a household or a business.
They provide data for policymaking and for policy evaluation, for the public debate as well as for monitoring the national economy and demographic changes. In Africa, like elsewhere, NSOs are part of a wider national and international statistical ecosystem, guaranteeing quality, compliance to international standards, and exchanges of data and statistical capacities. International organizations and non-African NSOs contribute providing funding, training, sharing expertise and building capacities through international technical assistance programs. South South cooperation among African NSOs is also growing in recent years, as some of them have reached higher levels of development. In Africa, NSOs have generally been created after Independence.
In addition to being young institutions, they are often confronted to lack of regular funding, technical skills and too limited qualified staff to undertake their annual work plan. Furthermore, they are confronted to a series of other challenges impacting their effectiveness. The legal instruments, on which their legitimacy is based, have in many cases not been updated or they are not adapted to recent changes. Users cannot be properly involved in the decision-making mechanisms. If users do not trust the data produced or if they do not know their value added, levels of response to surveys are too low. In addition to these challenges, access to administrative data is not ensured: data matching is not always possible and easy in these conditions.
Given all these challenges, to which must be added deep historical differences between countries and institutions, official statistics are generally not comparable in Africa. NSOs across the continent do not produce regularly and timely the same or comparable data. For these reasons, official statistics have not yet been included in the IIAG. Official statistics are a guarantee of quality and ownership for African countries. If, ideally, in the future the IIAG should be based only or mainly on official statistics, how to get to that point? Could the index contribute to regularly produce everywhere in Africa comparable data on critical issues? I hope that the IIAG Expert Panel will be able to provide a meaningful contribution to this extent.
In addition to being young institutions, they are often confronted to lack of regular funding, technical skills and too limited qualified staff to undertake their annual work plan. Furthermore, they are confronted to a series of other challenges impacting their effectiveness. The legal instruments, on which their legitimacy is based, have in many cases not been updated or they are not adapted to recent changes
Rule of law, public records transparency: democratic push and pull?
Within the 2024 IIAG’s sobering news that more than six in 10 Africans live in countries where certain key democratic governance norms have deteriorated over the past decade, two findings stand out for their implications for the continent’s democratic project. One is positive, the other less so. To start with the less positive news, the report shows that the average rule of law score has declined, and four in 10 Africans now live in countries where the pace of deterioration in rule of law has worsened compared to a decade ago. This trend represents a clear threat to citizens’ commitment to democracy and their evaluations of public officials. Afrobarometer public-attitude survey data show that weak rule of law is correlated with declining popular commitment to democracy.
In other words, citizens’ faith in democracy is at increased risk of erosion with the declining quality of rule of law. On the other hand, the IIAG records significant improvements in two elements of Transparency & Accountability: disclosure of public records and accessibility of public records. This is encouraging. The right of access to public information is guaranteed in the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights, and a growing number of African countries have adopted right-to-information laws. This aligns strongly with citizen expectations: A majority of Africans consistently express support for public access to information held by government officials.
Survey data further reveal that when citizens believe they can easily access public information, they are more likely to trust public officials and less likely to view them as corrupt. Providing easy access to public information is thus not just the right – and increasingly the lawful – thing to do, but it also directly influences how citizens assess the integrity of public officials. This, in turn, bodes well for popular support for democracy: Afrobarometer data show that popular support for democracy is enhanced when perceived corruption among public officials, especially at the local level, is low. While the declining quality of rule of law reported in the 2024 IIAG may be eroding public faith in democracy on the continent, the progress in disclosure of public information and access to public records may be bolstering it – countervailing influences on what Afrobarometer data show is Africans’ remarkably resilient support for democracy.