War in Sudan’s Darfur region has triggered a refugee crisis in eastern Chad and raised concerns that turmoil could spread. Chad was facing a turbulent time even before April, when fighting broke out in Sudan’s Darfur region on its eastern border, and things have only gotten worse since then. President Mahamat Déby Itno, who took over on an ostensibly interim basis after his father unexpectedly died in 2021, appears set on staying in power. 

The repression has weakened the political opposition and civil society, prompting several leaders to leave the country. Key Chadian rebel groups remain excluded from the transition, while others are dissatisfied with the government’s disarmament and reintegration program, which is supposed to be their bridge back to civilian life. 

The situation in Darfur may be the biggest challenge that N’Djamena faces. The border between Sudan and Chad has long been volatile. Since Chad won independence from France in 1960, Darfur has served as a safe haven for Chadian rebels. In the 2000s, cross-border ties among ethnic Zaghawa led to years of proxy warfare between Chad and Sudan. Late Chadian President Idriss Déby Itno directly supported Darfuri rebel groups, such as the Justice and Equality Movement. He allowed them to use Chad as a rear base to fight Khartoum-backed Arab militias in Darfur. In response, former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir backed Chadian rebel groups that launched an offensive on N’Djamena in 2006 and another in 2008. To calm tensions, Khartoum and N’Djamena signed a non-aggression pact in 2010, but cross-border family and clan connections remain strong, with the potential to influence national politics.

Since April, the Sudanese army led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has been engaged in a disastrous power struggle with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), headed by his former deputy Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo. The war has displaced more than four million people and devastated several parts of the country, pushing the Sudanese state to the brink of collapse. 

• Conflict in Darfur 

Darfur has suffered armed conflict over land, natural resources and power for decades. In the early 2000s, Darfuri rebel groups joined forces to rise up against Khartoum, which they perceived as neglecting the country’s peripheries and oppressing non-Arab minorities. The central government hit back with a brutal campaign aimed at the rebels as well as non-Arab ethnic militias, relying mainly upon local Arab-identifying ethno-linguistic groups whose militias came to be known as the Janjaweed. The vicious, indiscriminate campaigns in which the Janjaweed sacked villages and killed civilians – tactics echoed in Sudan’s current conflict – drove more than one million people from their homes.

Amid a mounting international outcry, the Sudanese government and Darfuri rebels signed a peace agreement in 2006. The agreement was followed the next year by the deployment of a hybrid AU-UN peacekeeping mission, UNAMID. But despite these efforts at peacemaking and accountability, the underlying tensions persisted. 

Refugees told Crisis Group that army soldiers in the area, meanwhile, were unwilling or unable to protect civilians. Arab militias murdered hundreds of Masalit civilians and went on a looting spree in what appeared to be a targeted campaign of tribal violence. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has documented freshly dug mass graves in the area, and senior UN officials have highlighted reports of conflict-related sexual violence. All these events are highly reminiscent of past horrors in Darfur.

• Refugees in eastern Chad 

The resurgence of fighting in Darfur has also uprooted hundreds of thousands of civilians, as it did in the 2000s. The UN refugee agency has registered 329,000 newly arrived Sudanese refugees in eastern Chad, as well as some 48,000 Chadian citizens who have fled Darfur. Between late April and early May, fighting in West Darfur drove almost 9,000 non-Arab Sudanese, primarily Masalit, from their homes. The actual refugee numbers are likely to be much higher than those registered by the UN, as many Sudanese have found shelter with Chadian hosts. Aid agencies are gradually arriving in the area, but the humanitarian response is still falling short.

• Chad response 

President Déby closed the border with Sudan the day the conflict broke out in Khartoum (though not to refugees) and deployed troops in the area. He adopted a neutral stance and called for dialogue between the warring parties in Sudan. France, which is Chad’s main security ally and has about 3,000 soldiers in N’Djamena that had been part of Operation Barkhane in the Sahel, has sent forces to the east to help the national army with logistics. Yet securing the 1,400km Chad-Sudan frontier remains a challenge. Contraband trade in fuel and other essential commodities has thrived.

The transitional government swiftly responded to the refugee crisis. Local authorities have made land available to build refugee camps, while N’Djamena has allowed UN agencies and international NGOs previously based in Sudan to relocate their operations to eastern Chad.

Still, eastern Chad is struggling to accommodate the new arrivals. In Adré, Sudanese refugees outnumber the permanent residents by a factor of three. Prices of fuel and charcoal have doubled. Housing is increasingly scarce, compelling many refugees to camp on what should be working farmland. The priority for N’Djamena is now building new camps well into the country’s interior.

• Risks to Chad stability and political transition 

President Déby is under increasing internal and external pressure to choose a side in the Sudan conflict. clan members in Chad are already making clear their discontent with recent decisions that Déby – who is Zaghawa on his father’s side and Gorane on his mother’s – has taken. But Déby is reportedly being pulled in other directions as well. The United Arab Emirates (UAE), a powerful supporter of the RSF, appears to be pushing Déby to take a stance of positive neutrality toward Hemedti. Abu Dhabi has been trying to strengthen ties with N’Djamena, and signs of its influence in Chad are multiplying. In mid-June, Déby visited Abu Dhabi to sign a military cooperation agreement that resulted in the delivery of armoured vehicles and security equipment several weeks later.

At the local level, another risk to Chad’s stability comes from the pressure exerted by the arrival of Sudanese refugees on Chadians living in the east. As the harvest season approaches, farmers have lost access to their fields, where refugee camps now sit. The resulting socio-economic stress has not triggered a significant reaction from the local population just yet. But more refugees are arriving, and they will likely stay in Chad for a long time. The country is already hosting around 400,000 Sudanese refugees from the 2000s Darfur war. To accommodate the new ones, local authorities will likely appropriate still more agricultural land. 

• Recommandations 

The war raging in Darfur presents myriad risks for N’Djamena. Pressure from domestic clans and foreign powers to choose sides in the Sudan conflict, as well as the humanitarian crisis in eastern Chad and attendant land issues, could have destabilising effects on a country that has already been somewhat shaky of late.

First, President Déby, along with the military’s top brass, should hold firm to Chad’s non-interventionist position, including in formal diplomatic settings. On 13 July, in Egypt, the leaders of Sudan’s six neighbours agreed to work together to resolve the Sudanese conflict. As part of this initiative, Déby should make clearer his position that Chad will not be dragged into the conflict in Darfur, focusing instead on using its historical relationships with key players to facilitate de-escalation and promote political and security arrangements that can help stabilise that region.

In partnership with Chadian authorities, donors should scale up assistance to Sudanese refugees in the east of Chad. As international aid agencies start setting up operations on the border, coordination is vital for a more targeted and effective response. 

The authorities should anticipate and work to alleviate current and potential future socio-economic pressure on communities in eastern Chad. Before they relocate Sudanese refugees to the interior, they should enhance coordination with traditional chiefs and community leaders to build consensus regarding land use. Given that these leadership roles are traditionally occupied by men, women’s organisations should also be involved in efforts to address the influx of refugees.